Posts Tagged 'Climate'

Tell us again, Granddad, about ice

Today is Climate Impact Day, set up to connect the dots between climate change and extreme weather, effects felt from diatoms to humanity.

What is past is prologue, and I think of two years ago when we flew back from Iceland. Our plane crossed over Greenland, and I took a few photographs through the jet’s window. It was a clear summer day and the view was absolutely breath-taking. The jet’s contrail, meanwhile, was adding its contribution to the atmospheric greenhouse that is melting that ice.

There was a point, deep inland over the ice, where everything visible below was white. I wondered if we were flying upside-down, so cloud-like was the vista. But then there were these huge patches of blue.Recently, I stumbled upon Extreme Ice, a PBS Nova episode, which explained what was going on. These are lakes that form atop the ice mass during the summer melt season. They have a tendency to disappear very quickly, and for a while it was thought that the water just refroze. But actually, the water cuts its way into the ice, hydrofracking deep vertical channels, and draining deep down to the bedrock. There the water acts as lubrication for the ice, making it move towards the coasts faster. Here are more details. There’s a feedback loop here, for the more the ice melts, the more it melts. Similarly, water at the calving face of a glacier acts like water does on the road, expanding cracks, and makes calving, the shearing off of icebergs from the glacial face, happen more quickly. Think potholes three miles long, the width of Manhattan at its fattest. Meanwhile, warmer, denser sea water, below the face of the glacier, undermines it from below.The documentary follows a photographer to Alaska, Iceland, and Greenland, where the ice is all retreating much faster than it is being replenished by snowfall. The reason for this is that the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is at record highs, and we know – regardless of what the stupid or willfully wrong say or try to obscure — that during the last 400,000 years this pattern has held true: high CO2 levels correspond to high temperatures which correspond to high sea levels. It’s simple, really: the atmosphere gets warmer because the heat radiating from the earth is trapped, like heat in a greenhouse, and the temperature rises. As the temperature rises, the oceans both expand because of the heat, and all the water pouring into them from the melting ice. Most of the world’s population lives on sea coasts. Meanwhile, as the ice melts, albedo lessens, which means there’s less reflection off of the white ice and more absorption by the dark earth; another factor heating things up. And as the ice goes so too goes the permafrost, which, in thawing, releases methane, an even more potent greenhouse gas than CO2.

Sure, someday the ice will return, but so far in the future that it’s irrelevant to humanity. The relevancy is now and the short distance to your children’s children, who will live in a world without mountain glaciers. In a hundred years, the roof of the world, the Himalayas, will have lost its great ice cap. If a billion people depend on the melt-water from there now, what will they drink in a century? We already live in a world crowded with refugees, political instability, and conflict over resources. Global climate change is going to make these problems infinity worse. Many people say they “don’t believe” in either global warming, or, if they have any sense of nuance, anthropomorphic global warming. But it is not a question of belief. Belief is for the Tooth Fairy and Easter Bunny. This is a question of science. That some people don’t understand the difference is a both a failure of our education system and a moral crisis.

Do Santorum, Gingrich, and Romney actually believe what they say when they belittle, deny, and even counter-attack the reality of global warming? Many politicians will say just about anything to get elected, of course, and the “Republican base” seems to be composed of angry, deluded fools — little different from the average Salem witch-hunting mob — who feed off demagoguery, but this trio of dangerous clowns are being particularly egregious in trumpeting pseudo-science and ignorance. (My take is that Santorum seems authentically a religious fanatic, a Christian jihadi perverting his children to his twisted notions and wanting to drag the entire nation down his twisted little rabbit hole; Gingrich and Romney, on the other hand, are just profoundly malignant hacks.)

I’m no partisan: the corporate moderate currently in the White House has shown little to no leadership on the issue of global warming. The fabled moderates he’s supposed to court evidently aren’t interested in the issue. We know that the Pentagon is thinking about the instability radical global climate change is causing, as are the insurance giants, so there can’t be any doubt Obama isn’t aware the issues. Of course, we’re silly to think that he or any President should be leading us. In fact, they are followers, of the money, which is shorthand for the power structures in our oligarchic kabuki democracy; and, on a day-to-day calculus, the facile polls. We need to lead, and to light fires behind the followers’ sorry asses. The effort to kill the Keystone Pipeline disaster was one such fire, but we need thousands more of them, since that’s already being undermined by Obama’s fast-tracking of the southern route.The ice calved off of into the Jökulsárlón lagoon in Iceland is pulled out a narrow channel by the tide into the North Atlantic. Then it is pushed back onto the black sand beach by the waves, and battered and whittled away by the water.

Iceland should have really been named Greenland and Greenland really Iceland a millennium ago when the Norse steered their ships west. Although the Little Ice Age turned cold and grim in the north, for the last century and a half both these lands have been warming with the planet. Iceland is losing its ice. Greenland is finally turning green.

The effects are like a three-dimensional game of dominoes.

Winter: What is it good for?

Tomorrow is the last day of winter, a measure now more astronomical than seasonal. What did we miss this year?

Snow, and the recharging of our water supplies with the spring thaw.

Gateway NRA spent the last couple of months sending out warnings about the fire hazard created by zero snow cover, strong coastal winds, and low humidity.

The winnowing of the insect kingdom: there should be plenty of bugs this year. I look forward to many of them, but some of them are annoying, while others are economically costly pests. Some may be vectors of disease.

Seeds: many native species require a hard freeze to germinate come the spring. This is the way they evolved.

Regional fruit farmers saw early budding, some as early as February. The danger of a killing frost, theoretically possible until the middle of April, may have been avoided, this time.It was a pointless existence for this anti-idiot warning this winter.

This unusually warm winter, with only a scattering of snow and few days of real cold, has been greeted by a lot of people with relish. They bemoan last year’s snowfall as if they had actually suffered through it (I don’t speak of the poor, the homeless, and the elderly or movement impaired, who have cause) and feel relieved by this year’s mildness. Next year may well be wintery (Central Europe was KOed by a murderous winter this year), but the trend is unmistakable: a warmer planet is leading to radical climate change, disrupting the weather as we know it; natural systems (from species to habitats) are being disrupted much faster than they are used to; the human costs are increasing. And the nation sleeps, like some bloated creature hibernating in its own ignorance.

Februarius Mirabilis

Are you old enough to remember when winter used to be winter, damn it, and spring, spring? On the way to Prospect Park today, the second day of February, I saw the flowering quince on Congress St. in bloom:And then, in a tree pit in Windsor Terrace, some bulbs were pushing up into the light:In the Midwood, there were wild spring onions:I stopped dead in my tracks for these snow drops (snow? snow?):But wait, there was more. The Chinese witch-hazel was blooming, not even bothering to have complely shed its old leaves:American witchhazel blooms late in the fall, Chinese witch-hazel early in the spring. Between the two should come winter, a time of cold, and snow, and ice, and stasis. Last year I took some pics of witch-hazel bloom on March 8th.You know, when I was a boy I would be annoyed by people who started off saying things like “when I was a boy.” But now that I close in on my half century mark, it’s easier to see what those old codgers were about. The past is a different place. With the climate changing so radically, my dear friends A & H’s baby, born last night, will reach his half century in a very, very different world. Welcome little dude, and good luck!

UPDATE: The NY Botanical Garden answers your questions about the vulnerability of these early blooms to the return of freezing weather.

Solstice

Oh, Wind
If Winter comes, can Spring be far behind?

~ Percy Bysshe Shelley

Written in 1819, when winters were wintery, and published, unlike most of his work, during his lifetime. Here’s the complete poem.

November Camellia

Following in the blogsteps of my neighbor, the 66 Square Footer, I walked by the confused camellia around the corner. Normally a very early spring bloomer, this is blooming now. On Monday, it was 70 degrees F, the warmest November 26th on record here in NYC.Today it’s a relatively cool 57, some fourteen degrees higher than the average for the day.

Bee Wary

I’m as guilty as the next person: I’ve been reveling in this unseasonable weather. (It was 60 degrees here a few minutes ago.) But I’m reminded, by those canaries of the insect world, the honeybees, that something is amiss. You see, these warm days keep honeybees active. They’ve been flying out from the hive, but they aren’t finding much in bloom. Plants are still playing catch-up with our warmer autumns. So the bees return with little nectar and less pollen. But, working hard, they still need food. So they eat the honey they’ve produced earlier in the season. But this is the stuff that’s supposed to see them through the winter. I got an email yesterday from a local beekeeping group, noting that the city’s honeybees are diving into their winter supplies now. Beekeepers were being urged, if they needed the impetus, to add supplemental feeding to keep that honey stockpiled; since this is usually sugar water, even with added vitamins, it’s poor stuff compared to the wonders of nectar.

In winter, honeybees cluster in a dense clump inside the hive, surrounding the queen and vibrating to keep warm. Honey, essentially a super energy, is what gets the hive through the cold. Workers on the outside of the clump circulate towards the center to warm up, and vice versa. When temperatures rise above 60 or so in the early spring, they can fly out on cleansing runs, dropping all their stored wastes outside the hive. Life’s a balance between the amount of honey and the length of winter – complicated, of course, by the semi-domestication of this naturalized species, since an amount of honey has been harvested by the beekeeper – with disease, predators, etc. factors as well. The winter hive is an all-female operation: male bees, the drones, are driven out to die in the fall. Big eaters, but little contributors, male bees have no place in the political economy of the winter hive.

Iceless Age

My apocalyptic post on the acidification of the seas, complete with junior home science experiement, turns out to be old news. Earth has been there, done that. Fifty-six million years ago, to be somewhat exact about it. This month’s National Geographic details the PETM: the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, in which a huge influx of carbon into the atmosphere raised world temperature radically and killed off life in the seas.

A world without ice. Woaw! Sound familiar?

Scientists don’t know where all the PETM carbon came from. Perhaps it was more than one source, but methane hydrate is a prime suspect. This form of methane is usually, as it is now, contained by cold and high pressure conditions. When it gets hotter, however, the methane breaks loose. And since methane has a much more powerful greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide, it actually speeds up the warming. Then, oxidizing, methane turns into carbon dioxide after a couple of decades, keeping the heat on.

Currently, methane is locked in the tundra and on the deep sea floor. But the tundra is already softening.

Eventually, all that PETM carbon was reabsorbed. But not before some radical changes. Check out the photo of the replica core sample. The dividing line is stark: white below from the calcium creatures kiled off by acidification. The PETM was a tremendous crash of extinction, but also ushered in an evolutionary explosion. Mammals rose from the greenhouse incubator. We might be said to be children of that disaster. How apropos! For the new greenhouse, created by our burning of history, may well smoother the mammals this time around.

Over the geological time scale, the earth abides. Your blogging species, however, well… not so much.

Chilling Flashback

The Back 40 im Schnee, January 27, 2011. As it’s forecast to top 100F today — not including the heat index bump of broiling tarmac, radiating concrete, greenhouse glass, and over-stressed generators fighting it all and thus burning even more coal to help heat things up even more — this one’s for you, Midwest/East, and all the polar bears in Churchill and beyond.

Albedo in Brooklyn

The backyard light was on the other night and the light bounced back brightly into my apartment because of all the snow. Ah, I thought, albedo in action.

Technically, albedo is a “ratio of reflected radiation from the surface to incident radiation upon it” (Wikipedia). Crossword fiends and Catholics will recognize the alb in the word, from the Latin for white. The polar ice caps reflect a greater amount of the radiation hitting them than does ice-free terrain. Put another way, you shouldn’t drive a black car in the desert.

Less ice = less albedo, which means more heat which means less ice, which means less albedo and so on. This is one of the feedback mechanisms of a warming world.

I quickly turned out the light.
Compare.

Everybody talks about the climate

…(except the President) but nobody does anything about it, as Mark Twain almost said.
A lot more snow than we’ve seen for a while and a brief snap of the Arctic chilly-willies means you must have heard the new cliché in the media stream, if not in person: “So much for global warming.” Meanwhile, the know-nothings and their carbon industry paymasters smirk, sure that their regional weather anecdotes trump climate science (and physics, chemistry, etc.), which they see as part of a conspiracy so vast it boggles the mind with its insidiousness.

But the fact of Earth’s rising temperature doesn’t mean we won’t have winter, not for a long while. A warmer world is a wetter one, and that moisture can come as snow in season. Indeed, Europe, for one, now seems to be battered by both hotter summers and colder winters. Meanwhile, storms (hurricanes, monsoons), floods, and droughts, and the starvation, migration, violence, and political crises that follow these things, all of which we’re already familiar with, suggest that “global warming” may not be the best description for our reality. Better is radical climate change, climate instability, climate disruption, “climate destabilization,” the latter suggesting both the climatological and geopolitical effects.

Reading about the history of the Caribbean lately makes me think of this analogy: slavery was once at the heart of capitalism as hydrocarbons are now. Great fortunes were made, tens of thousands were employed, entire cities and nations depended on the Triangular Trade. This was globalism avant la lettre. The sugar, rum, cotton industries; boat builders, dock workers, and shipping companies; insurance companies, banks, and lawyers. Civilization, you’ll pardon the term, was predicated on slavery, as it is now on hydrocarbons. To be rid of it meant to destroy jobs and ruin economies, yadda-yadda, you know the script. And those depending on it struggled furiously to maintain it, regardless of its barbarism, or, if your prefer your political economy amoral, its gross inefficiency.

Transatlantic African slavery lasted for 350 years; the age of carbon is about 250 years old.
Pictures from last July. Top is the glacial lagoon at Jökulsárlón, Iceland, which means you just learned some Icelandic since that name means “glacial lagoon.” Next is Skaftafellsjökull, a retreating tongue of the great Vatnajökull, the world’s largest glacier outside of Greenland and Antarctica. Some of that dust is from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano.

On the way back, our plane passed over Greenland:


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